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 Kildare v Galway and the permutations

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tomoneillandhissisteranne
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PostSubject: Kildare v Galway and the permutations   Mon Mar 30, 2015 4:15 am

Looking at the pairings for next week I'd hope/reckon ....

Roscommon will beat Westmeath
Down will beat Laois
Meath will beat Cavan

That would leave the table like this:

1. DOWN 10
2 MEATH 9
3 CAVAN 7
4 ROSCOMMON 9
5 GALWAY 6 (if we win) 7 (if we draw) 8(if they win)
6 LAOIS 5
7 WESTMEATH 4
8 KILDARE 6 (if we win) 5 (if we draw) 4 (if we lose)

Unless I'm wrong (quite possible) a loss and we're gone; a draw and Laois and Westmeath losses and we scrape in; a win and we stay up if Laois lose
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Cilldara_2000
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PostSubject: Re: Kildare v Galway and the permutations   Mon Mar 30, 2015 4:38 am

Crofter wrote:
If we win by 4 points we are safe by my reckoning (Galway currently 7 points better than us). Assumes WM don't win by 18 points next week..

This.

There are three relevant games and 27 possible outcomes. Us v Galway, Down v Laois and Westmeath v Roscommon. In the nine possible outcomes where Kildare lose, we get relegated, simple as. Again assuming Westmeath won't win by 18 points or more, in the 9 scenarios where we win, there are 3 scenarios where our score difference would count in a three way tie: if Laois and Westmeath also win, it's Kildare, Galway and Westmeath on 6 points with the lowest two going down; and if Laois draw and Westmeath lose or draw, it's Kildare, Laois and Galway on 6 points with the lowest one going down along with Westmeath.

There are also two possible outcomes where we stay up if we draw: if Laois and Westmeath both lose, we'd be tied with Laois on 5 points and stay up on the basis of having beat Laois; and if Laois lose and Westmeath draw, there'd be a three way tie with Kildare, Laois and Westmeath on 5 points. In this scenario, if Laois lost by 7 points or more they would go down instead of us.

(Posted in other thread first but deleted it for here)
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kildaregaa365
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PostSubject: Re: Kildare v Galway and the permutations   Mon Mar 30, 2015 4:40 am

Leaving myself open to correction but here's how I believe it works:

1. We beat Galway by 4 points  and we stay up unless Westmeath win by at least 20( I said 18 earlier but I think it's actually 20) . If WM did happen to win by 20, Laois would also have to at least draw to deny us.  SO IT IS ESSENTIALLY IN OUR OWN HANDS IF WE WIN BY 4 unless you believe WM can produce a miracle.

2. If we beat Galway by less than 4 then Galway would be ahead of us on points difference which means we'd have to stay ahead of WM and Laois. Again WM would have to win by 16 points more than we do but a draw for Laois would scupper us (they have a 0 points difference so would edge us out if level with us in a 3 way tie)

3. If we draw..  we would move to 5 points and would need WM to lose ideally. Then any Laois defeat would be ok for us as we'd edge out Laois on head to head.  But if WM drew also and we had a 3 way tie on 5 points Laois would have to lose by 8 points for us to prevail.

4. If we lose we're banjaxed.

Make sense ??  I may have missed a few permutations.

p.s. we last beat Galway in the 1980's in competitive senior football ( in fact I think at any level)
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Bad News Baba
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PostSubject: Re: Kildare v Galway and the permutations   Mon Mar 30, 2015 5:49 am

Promotion & Relegation

Both promotion and relegation to be organised on the basis of two up/two down.

Where Counties finish with Equal Points – extract from (Riail 6.20 T.O. 2014):
“...........the tie shall be decided by the following means and in the order specified:

(i) Where two Teams only are involved - the outcome of the meeting of the two Teams in the previous game in the Competition;
(ii) Scoring Difference (subtracting the total Scores Against from total Scores For);
(iii) Highest Total Score For;
(iv) A Play-Off.

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murof
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PostSubject: Re: Kildare v Galway and the permutations   Mon Mar 30, 2015 6:30 am

Personally cant see either WH or Laois winning next week as both Roscommon and Down need to bounce back after bad defeats this week. All Kildare need to worry about is winning which will be very difficult as Galway seem to have rediscovered their form.
When you remember how we threw away victory in our first 2 games we could have been fighting for promotion next week rather than relegation.
Hopefully we will have our strongest team out for this one.
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fone
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PostSubject: Re: Kildare v Galway and the permutations   Mon Mar 30, 2015 6:40 am

to be relegated

westmeath 1/6
kildare 2/5
laois 8/13
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hawker
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PostSubject: Re: Kildare v Galway and the permutations   Mon Mar 30, 2015 6:13 pm

With the possibility of 6 Ulster teams in Div 2 next year perhaps Div 3 might not be all that bad. Wink
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topcat
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PostSubject: Re: Kildare v Galway and the permutations   Mon Mar 30, 2015 10:52 pm

A win for us and a Laois win will relegate Galway based on the head to head?
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topcat
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PostSubject: Re: Kildare v Galway and the permutations   Mon Mar 30, 2015 10:53 pm

So long as Westmeath lose to Roscommon.
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PostSubject: Re: Kildare v Galway and the permutations   Mon Mar 30, 2015 11:27 pm

Other results are a complete irrelevance. The only thing we can control is our performance and our result.

If we win and end up being relegated anyway so be it. But for me the main thing is to go to Galway and to give it one hell of an effort from 1-15 and on the sideline.

Team selection is also critical.

JR is gone whenever we exit the championship. It's crucial for the next man in we stay in Division 2.
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kildaregaa365
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PostSubject: Re: Kildare v Galway and the permutations   Wed Apr 01, 2015 8:49 am

topcat wrote:
A win for us and a Laois win will relegate Galway based on the head to head?

Yes assuming WM lose
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SeamusMurphy
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PostSubject: Re: Kildare v Galway and the permutations   Wed Apr 01, 2015 7:42 pm

Why is the Match fixed for Tuam anybody ?.. I booked the Hotel in Galway ages ago, and was planning the Train down.. this makes it fair awkward now I can tell Ya.. Hope we kick the s_it_ out of them.
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flourman
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PostSubject: Re: Kildare v Galway and the permutations   Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:03 pm

Salthill is unplayable apparently.

Think JR is bad with the media?

Check out Cribben's words of inspiration around Westmeath's chances next weekend Shocked

“This is not easily solved. Next weekend is a huge game and you wouldn't be looking forward to it the way we are, being honest.”
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lillyboy
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PostSubject: Re: Kildare v Galway and the permutations   Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:24 pm

There seems to be an art to giving an interview while saying very little.
I hope the never taken penalty against roscommon doesn't come back to haunt us in the score difference
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clonmullin
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PostSubject: Re: Kildare v Galway and the permutations   Thu Apr 02, 2015 12:31 am

Or the two missed penalties against Down & Cavan.

Given our luck with penalties this year it would be nice to get a last minute John Doyle-esq penalty in the last minute to win by four :-)
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Botch
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PostSubject: Re: Kildare v Galway and the permutations   Thu Apr 02, 2015 12:37 am

clonmullin wrote:
Or the two missed penalties against Down & Cavan.

Given our luck with penalties this year it would be nice to get a last minute John Doyle-esq penalty in the last minute to win by four :-)

I remember it well. Great day and great night in galway after Smile
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tomoneillandhissisteranne
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PostSubject: Re: Kildare v Galway and the permutations   Fri Apr 03, 2015 2:09 am

Huge ask, in my opinion, to win in Tuam on current form - even against a Galway side that seems to blow hot and cold but here's hoping
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LillieLad
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PostSubject: Re: Kildare v Galway and the permutations   Sat Apr 04, 2015 9:53 pm

1 Mark Donnellan Maigh Nuad
2 Ollie Lyons Cill Droichid
3 Mick O Grady Cill Droichid
4 Ciaran Fitzpatrick Cill Cocha
5 Peter Kelly Teach dha Mhile
6 Fergal Conway Cill Droichid
7 Emmet Bolton Baile Éide
8 Gary White Na Sairsealaigh
9 Paul Cribbin Baile Sheaín
10 Keith Cribbin Baile Sheain
11 Eoghan O Flaherty Cairbre
12 Fionn Dowling Crocha na Greine
13 Eamonn Callaghan Nás na Ríogh
14 Padraig Fogarty Naomh Lorcan
15 Alan Smith Na Sairsealaigh

Surprised Eoin Doyle isn't starting he's been our best player this year along with the 2 Cribbin's.
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Lily8
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PostSubject: Re: Kildare v Galway and the permutations   Sat Apr 04, 2015 10:02 pm

What's the story with Mulhall? Think he deserves another chance.
Despite Callaghan and O'Neill missing last week he didn't even get on for a few minutes.
Doesn't seem to be injured as he was warming up along the sideline throughout the match.
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PostSubject: Re: Kildare v Galway and the permutations   Sat Apr 04, 2015 11:00 pm

Yeah the situation with Muhall is weird he was good in the O'Byrne cup then seemed to be played out of position in a half forward creative role and he can't play there. Id stick him in his best position in the corner. The thing is though I'd only have 2 full forwards and one has to be Podge or Tomas and then the other is between Smith and Mullhall. Podge and Smith are the ones I'd pick. I think i'm talking shite....
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SeamusMurphy
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PostSubject: Re: Kildare v Galway and the permutations   Sat Apr 04, 2015 11:22 pm

I would play Daroch in the corner ahead of Eamonn, and I am a bit surprised to see Him back in there.. then again He is Captain, and I assume that nearly assures Jason will play Him.

Im not as optimistic as I was going into the Laois Match.

I wonder are any of our u21's called up ?
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PostSubject: Re: Kildare v Galway and the permutations   Sat Apr 04, 2015 11:24 pm

I doubt Leper will actually be in the corner though. I would rather Mullhall in there too though.
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lilywhites on tour
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PostSubject: Re: Kildare v Galway and the permutations   Sun Apr 05, 2015 2:04 am

Indeed SeamusMurphy, Re Callaghan as captain, however I do remember Killian Brennan as captain in 08 and geezer had no problem dropping him and substituting him in games! I would like to see him show a bit of leadership and flare, is has been lacking in him so far! No chance of Neil Flynn dropping in there??
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kildaregaa365
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PostSubject: Re: Kildare v Galway and the permutations   Sun Apr 05, 2015 4:33 am

There's usually one or two changes on the day, do maybe Doyle will still come in. Still no sign of a sweeper which could be a serious flaw playing against better forwards than Laois's.

And what's the story with Dan Flynn - seemed to be ready to make a big impression in his first couple of appearances and now out of the picture? Is he injured?

Re Mulhall, he was really awful in a couple of games in a row and deservedly lost his place. As said above you wouldn't really play both Smith and Mulhall and it's Smith for me any day.
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PostSubject: Re: Kildare v Galway and the permutations   Sun Apr 05, 2015 5:00 am

Flynn was a bold boy a few ago .. Presume he was suspended from the panel, if so, no idea for how long. I would have thought K Cribben will act as a seventh defender. Leper is no longer worthy of his place in that team going by recent form - disappointed to see him start.
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